Re: [外電] What's wrong with Chien-Ming Wang?

[pikmin (皮克敏)]

http://riveraveblues.com/2009/04/whats-wrong-with-chien-ming-wang-10253/

The Yanks are buried 2.5 games back of the first place Blue Jays with only
155 games left to play (/hyperbole), but perhaps the biggest problem facing
them right now is Chien-Ming Wang. The incumbent ace has been absolutely
brutal in his two starts this year, allowing (gulp) 21 baserunners and 15
earned runs in just four and two-third innings pitched. That makes Sidney
Ponson look like Roy frickin’ Halladay. The more troubling part is how Wang
just doesn’t look like himself at all; his pitches are all up in the zone,
his velocity is down, and his sinker isn’t sinking.

洋基隊在只剩 155 場比賽可打的情形下落後領先分區的藍鳥隊整整 2.5 場(誇飾說法)
，但也許現在在他們眼前最大的問題是王建民。這位扛起王牌的投手在今年的頭兩場先
發毫無疑問地面臨嚴酷的現實，在僅僅四又三分之二局的局數中讓 21 位打者上壘並失
了 15 分自責分。這使 Sidney Ponson 看起來像是 Roy frickin' Halladay 一般。更
令人疑惑的部份是王建民為何投得一點都不像他自己；所有的球都偏高，速度下降，而
且伸卡球也不往下掉。

This might not be something that just started last week either. Wang had a
1.56 WHIP and a 6.00 ERA in his previous six starts before lisfrancing his
foot last summer, suggesting that something might have been wrong going back
as far as last year. Of course that ten month layoff doesn’t help any, but
we can still look at the data to see if we can find anything. Wang did have a
good but not great Spring Training (21.2 IP, 25 H, 16 R, 10 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 3
HR), however no one in their right mind would use Spring Training stats to
evaluate anything, especially for a player with a signficant track record.

這也可能不是上星期才開始的問題。王在去年暑假麗氏足部脫臼之前的六次先發投出了
1.56 的 WHIP 與自責分率 6.00 的表現，暗示了也許從去年起就有些什麼問題了。當然
十個月的休息沒有任何幫助，但我們仍然可以從這些資料中看看是否能發現什麼。王建
民是有個不錯但不是很好的春訓(21.2 局、25 支安打、16 分失分中有 10 分責失、4
次保送與 10 個三振，被擊出 3 支全壘打)，然而沒有人會在心中用春訓成績來評估任
何事，特別是一個過去有出色成績的選手。

Let’s compare three versions of Chien-Ming Wang using Pitch f/x:

咱們用 Picth f/x 來比較三個時期的王建民；

1. Pre-May 18th, 2008: This was the light’s out CMW last year, when he had a
   2.90 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through his first nine starts and 59 IP.
2. Post-May 18th, 2008: Wang had his first of a series of clunkers on May 18th
   last year, which marks the point of that 6.00 ERA/1.56 WHIP era I mentioned
   earlier. I fail at labeling, but this version includes his May 18th start.
3. 2009: This year’s pair of starts, i.e. the really, really crappy version of
   CMW.

1. 2008/05/18 之前: 這是去年鋒芒畢露的王建民，他在頭 9 次先發共 59 局的投球
   中送出了自責分率 2.90 與 WHIP 1.17 的表現。
2. 2008/05/18 之後: 王建民從去年 05/18 開始了第一場一系列不堪的投球，如先前
   所提到 6.00 的自責分率與 1.56 的WHIP。我沒有標示的很清楚，但這時期包括了
   05/18 先發的比賽。
3. 2009: 今年的兩場先發，也就是，非常，非常糟糕的王建民。

I’m going to focus on Wang’s two main pitches in this analysis: his sinking
fastball and slider. He’s also been known to throw changeups, splitters, and
even the occasional curveball, but because he throws them so rarely it’s not
worth the time and effort to take a deeper look at them. I’m going to start
with the pitch trajectories as always, and to make life easier I gave
fastballs and sliders their own individual graphs. Make sure you remember to
click each graph for a larger, squinting at a computer screen has to be bad
for your eyes.

我將要在分析中鎖定王建民兩種主要球路: 伸卡球與滑球。大家都知道他也會投投變速
球，指叉球甚至是偶爾出現的曲球，但因為他非常少使用這幾種球路，不值得花太多時
間與精神在這些球種上。如往常一般，我會從投球軌跡開始，同時為了容易瞭解起見將
讓快速球與滑球有獨立的圖表。記得將每張圖點開放大，瞇著眼看螢幕一定會對你的雙
眼有害。

Fun starts after the jump.

有趣的來了。

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/fb-birds-eye.jpg (速球)

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/sl-birds-eye.jpg (滑球)

Looking at the fastballs first, you can see that the horizontal release point
of the three versions are different, but the pitches typically end up at the
same spot. That means that the post-May 18th fastball has less movement than
the pre-May 18th version, and the 2009 version has even less movement than
that. That’s not good, Wang’s a guy who needs his fastball to dart and dive
and all that jazz. You can also see that his ‘09 slider isn’t moving as
much as the ‘08 versions.

先看看快速球，你可以看見三個時期水平的出手點是不同的，但球基本上都投進了相同
的位置。這表示第二個時期的速球尾勁較第一個時期來得少，而今年的球又比那時來得
更少。這情況不太妙，王建民是需要他的快速球能突然轉彎並下潛等諸如此類東西的傢
伙。你可以同時看到他 09 年的滑球不像 08 年那樣的移動。

Now, the look as if you were standing at first base:

現在，是你站在一壘上所看見的情形:

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/fb-1b.jpg (速球)

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/sl-1b.jpg (滑球)

This view shows is that Wang is releasing both pitches from a higher spot
this year than he did last. The fastball still has vertical drop, but it’s
not moving horizontally as much, which you can see in the bird’s eye look.
Let’s take a look from the catcher’s view:

這兩張圖表示的是王建民今年兩種球路的出手點比他以往來得高。速球仍然有垂直的
下墜，但並沒有足夠的水平移動，這點你可以從鳥瞰圖發現。咱們接著來看看從捕手
的角度看到什麼:

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/fb-catcher.jpg (速球)

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/sl-catcher.jpg (滑球)

More than anything, this view just gives you a different look at the above.
His pitches are still moving vertically in a way similar to last year, but
they definitely don’t have the same kind of side-to-side movement. To
further drive home that point:

最清楚不過，這兩張圖給你和前面那些圖完全不同的視野。他的投球仍然有接近去年
那樣的垂直移動，但他們絕對沒有同樣大角度的尾勁。更清楚的指出問題點:

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/movement.jpg

I haven’t posted one of these movement plots on RAB yet, so let me explain.
It’s simple, don’t worry. The x-axis shows the horizontal movement of the
pitch with 0 meaning it’s straight as an arrow. A negative value means the
pitch moves in on righties, a positive value means it moves in on lefties.
The y-axis is the vertical movement of the pitch compared to a ball thrown
with zero spin. Fastballs have big numbers because they have more carry on
them then this mythical zero rotation pitch, but breaking balls have small
numbers because they move more. Curveballs are usually in the negatives, as
are super elite sliders (think Brad Lidge). The units in this graph are
inches.

我還沒有在 RAB 上貼上這些圖，所以讓我解釋一下。這相當容易，不必擔心。X-軸
顯示的是投球的水平移動而 0 表示像箭一般的直線前進。小於零的值投球往右手邊
移動，而大於零的值表示往左。Y-軸則是相對於一個沒有旋轉的球的垂直移動。快速
球因為比像神話般零旋轉的球(這裡指蝴蝶球)有更遠的飛行距離所以有較大的數字，
但決勝球(這裡指滑球)因為他們移動更多而有較小的數字。曲球通常在負值區，如同
極品的滑球(想想 Brad Lidge)。這張圖表的單位是英吋。

So, from this you can see that his fastball still has the same kind of
vertical movement as last year, but it’s just not riding as hard
horizontally. The slider’s dropping a bit more but not moving as much
horizontally as last year. All of this is consistent with everything
presented above. These trajectory and movement plots are fun to look at, but
all they really show are results, the results of his pitching motion, and
apparently that’s the problem. From Pete Abe:

所以，從這裡你可以看到他的快速球仍然有和去年一樣的垂直移動，但不再那樣劇
烈地水平移動。滑球掉得更多了一點，但失去去年那樣的水平移動。這所有的情況
都和前面提到的內容相符。這些軌跡和位移的圖表看起來很有趣，但也真的顯示了
他投球動作的結果，而很明顯的這就是問題所在。從 Pete Abe:

  Wang seemed stunned. He said the issue was where he released the ball, which
  was off to the side instead of over the top. A sinkerball pitcher wants to
  stand tall on the mound and throw the ball on a downward plane. Otherwise the
  ball floats over the strike zone and you see what happens.

  王建民看起來被打暈了。他說問題出在他放球的位置，也就是往身體側邊而不是
  越過頭部。伸卡球投手會想要在投手丘上站得高高的並把球往下方投去。否則，
  球將會漂過好球帶然後你會看見發生什麼事。

That sounds good and make sense, but the data doesn’t agree. Here’s a look
at Wang’s release points:

那聽起來不錯而且合理，但顯示的資料卻不認同。這是王建民出手點的統計圖:

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/fb-release-points.jpg

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/sl-release-points.jpg

If you haven’t seen these before, make sure you read RAB more often the
point 0,0 is the center of the front of home plate, so the x-axis shows you
how far away from the middle of the plate you are, and the y-axis shows you
how far you are above the ground. Now, there’s a couple things going on
here. First of all, those post-May 18th points that are mixed in with the
pre-May 18th points are scattered over several starts. It’s not like all
those pitches came from one or two starts, they’re spread out over all six
starts. Secondly, it’s very likely that the difference in the general
horizontal location of the pitches is caused by Wang move more towards the
first base side of the rubber, but we’re focusing on the vertical location
since Wang said he wanted to come more over the top.

如果你以前沒有看過這些，0,0 這個點是本壘板前方的中心，所以 X-軸顯示你距
離本壘板中心多遠，而 Y-軸顯示你離地面多高。現在，有許多事在這裡發生。首
先，05/18 後和 05/18 前混在一起的投球分散在幾次不同先發。看起來不太像是
這所有的投球來自一或兩場先發而已，而是分布在六場先發中。第二，很有可能
這些在水平位置的差異是因為王建民朝投手板的一壘側更靠近一些，不過我們還
是專注在垂直位置，因為王建民說過他想要從更高的位置來出手。

In general, Wang’s throwing the ball from a spot about six inches higher
this year than he did last year, no matter if you consider the good ‘08 Wang
or the bad ‘08 Wang. That contradicts what he said after the game, but that
doesn’t mean he’s lying or the data’s wrong. It’s entirely possible that
he wants to release the ball from an even higher spot than he currently is,
but I have to ask why? I mean, if throwing it from a slightly lower slot
worked last year, why change it? I’m no pitching coach or pitching mechanics
expert, so I won’t even attempt to answer those questions. All I do know is
that for some reason Wang is releasing the ball from a higher spot than last
year and yet he still wants to come even more over the top.

基本上，王建民今年在出手時比去年來得高約六英吋，不管考慮的是好的 08 年
還是壞的 08 年王建民。這和他賽後所說的不同，但並不表示他在說謊或者是資
料有誤。非常有可能他想要在比現在還要高的放球點出手，但我需要問為什麼?
我的意思是，如果照去年那樣從一個較低的出手點投球沒有問題，為何要改變?
我不是投手教練或投球機制專家，所以我甚至不會嘗試要去回答這些問題。我所
知道的是因為某些理由王建民正從一個較去年來得高的出手點投球，而且他還想
要從更高的點丟。

Finally, lets take a look at his velocity, because it’s definitely been down
this year.

最後，我們來看看他的球速，因為今年球速絕對下降了。

http://riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/velo11.jpg

That graphs encompassed a ton of pitches, 1,227 to be exact. Last year he was
sitting at 91-93 pretty consistently, except for that one start which was
probably a dead arm thing considering it was preceded by a spike in velocity
(maybe he was overthrowing in a big start and wore himself down). This year
Wang is sitting only 89-91, a small but definitely notable drop. This could
be from bad mechanics, a dead arm period, injury, or about a million other
things. The team already shot down injury and said it was just a mechanical
issue, and I believe them because Wang didn’t appear to be in any obvious
pain, he was more disgusted with himself.

圖表包括了上千顆投球，精確來說是 1227 顆。去年他的球速穩定地在 91-93
英哩之間，除了一場可能因為使用過度或什麼原因的手肘造成速度上突然下降的
先發(也許他在一場大比賽中投太多球而減弱了威力)。今年王建民球速只剩 89-
91 英哩，2 英哩的小差距卻絕對是值得注意的落差。這可能來自錯誤的投球機
制，手肘疲勞，受傷或者其他許多可能。洋基隊已經推翻了受傷的可能並且說這
只是投球機制的影響，而我也相信他們，因為王建民並不像是有任何明顯的傷痛
，他也對自己的表現更不滿意(表示王建民知道問題在自己)。

I don’t know what’s wrong with Chien-Ming Wang, but whatever it is, it’s
causing him to lose movement on his pitches as well as velocity. Maybe it’s
just rust from the long injury layoff. Disirregardless, I hope he gets
himself straightened out sooner rather than later. The cool part about the ‘
09 Yanks is that even though CMW is struggling, they can still trot out four
quality starters. When’s the last time we could say that?

我不知道王建民出了什麼問題，但不論是什麼，這造成他投球失去尾勁和速度。
也許只是因為受傷後長時間休息有點生鏽。不管怎樣，我希望他儘快讓自己調整
好。09 年洋基隊最酷的部份是儘管王建民正奮力掙扎，他們仍然可以排出四位
有水準的先發。我們上次可以這麼說的時候是什麼時候?

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◆ From: 130.63.90.148
※ 編輯: pikmin          來自: 130.63.90.148        (04/16 05:40)
推 shivaeye:感謝你的辛苦翻譯，這老外好專業。
推 sean302:太專業 我頭暈了..
推 Mraofrot:推，像這樣的文章才算的上有在分析
推 KillerLi:轉寄給建仔吧XD
推 sycc:翻譯辛苦了 推!
推 powerpacers:這老外比教練還專業的感覺XD
推 jack7249:清新專業文，不推不行
推 A0908:太專業了!!  這篇文章很有價值!!
推 aikamiura:推
推 aderlilas:很專業的評論..不過投的人是建仔..他自己要發現才行.XD
推 jjsakurai:所以不要去一昧的手抬高 照自己自然的方式投 尾勁就回來
推 think12381:把這篇文章轉給認識王葛格岳母的人請他岳母轉給王葛格
推 to1322:也給翻譯的大大鼓勵  翻的也很有水準歐!!!
→ ILS:都投不準了  我想速度是他本身也會先當作其次吧
→ ILS:去年出連勝後  雖然連敗幾場  但感覺受傷那場是有恢復水準的
推 tigernaxo:大意：不舉無礙，硬則甚善。
→ tigernaxo:季初一堆鄉民也發現出手點變更高壓
→ tigernaxo:原本還覺得球更有威力  想不到更高壓沒有比較好
推 dmitri:專業到恐怖............
推 ghed:推 When’s the last time we could say that?
推 ccc73123:我比較好奇 不是說高壓球速會比較快 他怎麼放球點愈高
→ ccc73123:反而球速愈慢?
推 NewPoliceman:那些圖的資料哪找的呀?
推 ccc73123:看GAMEDAY吧 可能還有錄影
推 totocc:酷
推 hacoolman:專業
推 justdoeat:喔 快寄給王~~~ 怎麼寄呀？ 王會收mail嗎？
推 dalireal:現在寄給他看到 會打亂他的思考吧
推 nanami5:別寄吧 難道一個MLB投手還要球迷寄信給他 告訴他怎麼投嗎?
→ nanami5:這麼做反而是形成小王的壓力吧!!!
推 chihchien:他的球高起來了 球速上不來可能心裡有壓力
推 clown:還真專業